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Foreign Exchange Today

Submitted by Forex News on Thu, 31/07/2008 - 7:17pm.
In Major Currencies | Market Reactions
Forex currency price chart of XAU and USD

ADP jobs surprise helps the Dollar fight Oil’s Rally

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had a positive day consolidating the gains made on Tuesday. A surprising Jump in the ADP employment report for July coming in +9K vs. expectations of -60K set the mood on Wall St. Also supporting the markets was the decision to extend the FED Primary Dealer Credit Facility until Jan 30. A fall in US crude inventories lead to a sharp rally in Oil and capped the USD gains. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 10 points (0.44%) and the Dow Jones was up 186 points (1.63%). Crude Oil closed up $4.58 ending the New York session at $122.19 per barrel. Looking ahead, weekly Jobless claims seen at 395K and Advanced Q2 GDP seen at 2.2% up from 1.0% in Q1.

European Euro

The Euro (EUR) fell initially on the US data but rebounded to opening levels on a rally in Crude Oil . Eurozone Consumer Confidence came in weak as predicted at -20 dampening hopes of any more interest rate rises going into the future. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.5522 and a high of 1.5617 before closing the day at 1.5580 in the New York session. Looking ahead, German Unemployment Change seen at -20K after -38K in June. Also released the July Inflation Report is forecasted to gain to 4.1% from 4.0% last month.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was sold as stocks gained and US data impressed but was little changed against most of the crosses as heavy falls in their respective majors capped any gains and the USD/JPY resistance at 108.30 held firm. July PMI Manufacturing gained slightly to 47 but is still well below the expansionary level above 50. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 107.70 and a high of 108.34 before closing the day around 108.10 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June Construction Orders.

Pound Sterling (GBP)

The Sterling (GBP) kept to a trading range with US data preceeding the day’s lows before recovering inline with the rally in Crude Oil. July GFK Consumer Confidence fell to -39 it’s lowest ever recorded with concerns of stagflation mounting. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.9745 and a high of 1.9844 before closing the day at 1.9810 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell in line with a plummeting Gold price and strengthening USD hitting month lows. Building Permits disappointed coming negative -0.7% vs. market expectations of +1.0%. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low 0.9412 and a high of 0.9526 before closing the US session at 0.9435. Looking ahead, June Retails sales are seen at 0.2% down from 0.7% in May. Also released is the June Trade Balance seen as a surplus of 50 million up from a -965 Million deficit in May.

Gold

Gold (XAU) fell sharply to month lows breaking through supports at 910 and 900 before finally finding support and recovering on the back of the large gain in Oil. Overall trading with a low of USD$894 and high of USD$918.80 ending the New York session at USD$908 an ounce.

Technical Analysis: Foreign Exchange Today

Euro (EUR)

Euro – 1.5575 : Initial support at 1.5493 (June 24 low) followed by 1.5476 (76.4% retracement of the 1.5303 to 1.6038 advance). Initial resistance is now located 1.5617 (July 30 high) at followed by 1.5758 (July 29 High).

Yen (JPY)

Yen – 108.10 : Initial support is located at 107.30 (July 29 low) followed by 106.58 (July 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 108.59 (Jun 16 high) followed by 109.71 (Jan 11 high).

Pound Sterling (GBP)

Pound – 1.9790 : Initial support at 1.9746 (July 30 low) followed by 1.9650 (July 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9843 (July 24 high) followed by 1.999 (July 22 high).

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Australian Dollar – 0.9435 : Initial support at 0.9404 (Jun 18 low) followed by 0.9328 (Jun 12 reaction low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9528 (July 30 high) followed by 0.9590 (July 17 low).

Gold (XAU)

Gold – 908 : Initial support at 888.68 (76.4% retracement of the 858.00 to 988.00 advance) followed by 874.5 (Jun 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 919.6 (July 30 high) followed by 935.30 (July 25 high).

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US GDP Disappointed

Submitted by Forex News on Fri, 01/08/2008 - 3:44pm.
In Major Currencies | Market Reactions
Forex currency price chart of AUD and USD

US GDP Disappointed but Dollar Strong ahead of Non farm

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was initially sold off after economic data disappointed but then strengthened during the US session to finish little changed ahead of today’s July Job announcement. US 2Q GDP came in at 1.9% while markets had been expecting a number in the region of 2.2-2.4%. Also soft, weekly Jobless Claims at 448K vs. expectations of 395K the highest report in 4 years. A pull back in Oil and Gold help support the bounce off day lows. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down 4 points (-0.18%) and the Dow Jones was down -205 points (-1.78%). Crude Oil closed down $2.69 ending the New York session at $124.08 per barrel. Looking ahead, Non Farm Payrolls seen at -75K after -62K in June. Also released the July Manufacturing ISM seen at 49.3.

European Euro

The Euro (EUR) traded at day highs after the US GDP disappointed but was unable to maintain strength as reports out of the Eurozone suggest growth will also slow in Q2. European CPI ticked higher coming in at 4.1% in July from 4.0% in June. German Unemployment change can in at expectations at -20K. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.5570 and a high of 1.5700 before closing the day at 1.5593 in the New York session. Looking ahead, German retail sales are seen at -0.5%.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) pivoted the 108 level against the USD. Buoyed by general greenback strength but weighed down as equities slumped. AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY have been under pressure as commodities continue to head lower. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 107.57 and a high of 108.38 before closing the day around 107.89 in the New York session.

Pound Sterling (GBP)

The Sterling (GBP) tracked the Euro higher initially but reversed as Oil tracked lower and the USD strengthened. Poor Housing data from the Nationwide HPI m/m at -1.7% weighed. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.9783 and a high of 1.9828 before closing the day at 1.9825 in the New York session. Looking ahead, July PMI Manufacturing seen at 45.5 down form 45.8 in June.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced more selling pressure after the June retails sales dropped -1.0% vs. expectations of a 0.2% gain. Supporting was the June Trade Balance coming in at a 400M surplus vs. a -253 Million deficit in May. The markets are focusing on the AUD after weak data prompted speculation of rate cutes. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low 0.9404 and a high of 0.9476 before closing the US session at 0.9420.

Gold

Gold (XAU) continued with recent volatility spiking as the US data surprised to the downside before broad based USD strength pared gains. Overall trading with a low of USD$907.90 and high of USD$925.20 ending the New York session at USD$914 an ounce.

Technical Analysis: US GDP Disappointed

Euro (EUR)

Euro – 1.5570 : Initial support at 1.5569 (Jul 31 low) followed by 1.5521 (July 30 low). Initial resistance is now located 1.5710 (76.4% retracement of the 1.5303 to 1.6038 advance) at followed by 1.5758 (July 29 High).

Yen (JPY)

Yen – 107.80 : Initial support is located at 107.30 (July 29 low) followed by 106.58 (July 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 108.59 (Jun 16 high) followed by 109.71 (Jan 11 high).

Pound Sterling (GBP)

Pound – 1.9820 : Initial support at 1.9782 (July 31 low) followed by 1.9746 (July 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9929 (July 31 high) followed by 1.999 (July 24 high).

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Australian Dollar – 0.9380 : Initial support at 0.9328 (Jun 12 low) followed by 0.9276 (May 2 low ). Initial resistance is now at 0.9476 (July 31 high) followed by 0.9528 (July 30 low).

Gold (XAU)

Gold – 911 : Initial support at 908 ( July 31 low) followed by 894.5 (July 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 925.2 (July 31 high) followed by 935.30 (July 25 high)

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