Forex Trading

Economic Indicators

Leading Economic Indicators

Following is a list of economic indicators which are used in the USA. Obviously, there are many more, as well as in other leading economies (such as Germany, the UK, Japan, etc.). In general, not only the numerical value of an indicator is important, but also the anticipation and the forecast to such, and the impact of the relation between anticipated and actual figures on the market.

Such macro indicators are being followed by the vast majority of traders worldwide. The "quality" of the published data may differ over time. The value of the indicator data is considered important if it presents new information, or is instrumental to drawing conclusions which couldn't be drawn under other reports or data. Furthermore, an indicator is highly valuable if one may use it to better forecast future trends.

Note that in the USA most indicators are published on certain week days, rather than a monthly date (e.g. - the second Wednesday in each month, etc.).

Each indicator is marked with "H"-"M"-"L" (according to its level of importance, as commonly considered).

H: CCI - Consumer Confidence Index
H: CPI - Consumer Price Index; Core-CPI
H: Employment Report
H: Employment Situation Report
H: FOMC Meeting (Federal Open Market Committee): Rate announcement
H: GDP - Gross Domestic Product
H: ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing Index
H: MCSI - Michigan Consumer Confidence Index
H: NFP - Changes in non-farm payrolls
H: PMI - Purchasing Managers Index
H: Retail Sales Data; Retail Sales less Automotives
H: Tankan Survey
H: TIC (Treasury International Capital) Data on transactions in long term securities
H: Trade Balance
L: Beige Book
L: ECI - Employment Cost Index
L: PCE - Personal Consumption Expenditure
M: Budget Statement Monthly
M: Composite Index of Leading Indicators
M: Current Account
M: Durable Goods
M: GDP Price Deflator
M: Housing Starts
M: Industrial Production Capacity; Production Utilization
M: Initial Jobless Claims
M: Philadelphia Fed Index (Business Outlook Survey)
M: PPI - Producer Price Index; Core-PPI

PPI - Producer Price Index

PPI - Producer Price Index; Core-PPI - Bureau of Labor and Statistics; The second full week of each month, 8:30am EST, covers previous month data. The PPI is not as widely used as the CPI, but it is still considered to be a good indicator of inflation. This indicator reflects the change of manufacturers’ cost of input (raw materials; semi-finished goods; etc.). Formerly known as the "Wholesale Price Index", the PPI is a basket of various indexes covering a wide range of areas affecting domestic producers. Each month approximately 100,000 prices are collected from 30,000 production and manufacturing firms. It is not as strong as the CPI in detecting inflation, but because it includes goods being produced it is often a forecast of future CPI releases.

Philadelphia Fed Index (Business Outlook Survey)

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; Around the 17th of each month, 10:00am EST, covers previous month data. The Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers located around the states of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. Companies surveyed indicate the direction of change in their overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. The index signals expansion when it is above zero and contraction when below. This index is considered to be a good indicator of changes in everything from employment, general prices, and conditions within the manufacturing industry. It isn't a big market mover, but the results found in the survey can indicate what to expect from the Purchasing Managers' Index (which comes out a few days later and covers the entire U.S.).

Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims - Department of Labor; Once a week on Thursday at 8:30am EST, covers previous week data. The data states the number of people who applied to receive unemployment pay for the first time. It has low to medium importance as this relates to weekly data with high fluctuations; average of four weeks is more stable.

Industrial Production Capacity - Production Utilization

Industrial Production Capacity; Production Utilization - Federal Reserve; Middle of the month, 9:15am EST, covers previous month data. It is a chain-weighted measure of the change in the production of the nation's factories, mines and utilities as well as a measure of their industrial capacity and of how many available resources are being used (commonly known as capacity utilization). In addition the Capacity Utilization Index provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use. They are important indicators as the manufacturing sector accounts for one-quarter of the economy.

Housing Starts

Housing Starts - Bureau of Census; Around the middle of each month, 8:30am EST, covers previous month data. This economic indicator tracks how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed throughout the month. For the survey each house and each single apartment are counted as one housing start. This indicator isn't a huge market mover, but it has been reported by U.S. Census that the housing industry represents over 25% of investment dollars and a 5% value of the overall economy. Housing starts are considered to be a leading indicator, meaning it detects trends in the economy looking forward. Declining housing starts show a slowing economy, while increases in housing activity can pull an economy out of a downturn.

GDP Price Deflator

GDP Price Deflator - BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis); Last day of the quarter, 8:30am EST, covers previous quarter data. The GDP deflator shows how much a change in the base year's GDP relies upon changes in the price level. Also known as the "GDP implicit price deflator." Because it isn't based on a fixed basket of goods and services, the GDP deflator has an advantage over the consumer price index (CPI). Changes in consumption patterns or the introduction of new goods and services are automatically reflected in the deflator. This data is a medium importance indicator for markets.

Durable Goods

Durable Goods - Bureau of Census; The fourth week of each month, 8:30am EST, covers previous month data. Durable Goods Orders measures new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. A durable good is defined as a good that lasts an extended period of time (over three years) during which its services are extended. Rising Durable Goods Orders are normally associated with stronger economic activity and can therefore lead to higher short-term interest rates that are often supportive to a currency at least in the short term.

Current Account

Current Account - BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis); Quarterly, around six weeks after quarter end. BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis); Quarterly, around six weeks after quarter end. The difference between a nation's total exports of goods, services, and transfers, and its total imports of them. Current account balance calculations exclude transactions in financial assets and liabilities. The level of the current account is followed as an indicator of trends in foreign trade so it is considered as a big market mover.

Composite Index of Leading Indicators

Composite Index of Leading Indicators - The Conference Board; Around the 20th of each month, 10:00am EST. An index used to predict the direction of the economy's movements in the months to come. The index is made up of 10 economic components, whose changes tend to precede changes in the overall economy. These 10 components include:

1. the average weekly hours worked by manufacturing workers;
2. the average number of initial applications for unemployment insurance;
3. the amount of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials;
4. the speed of delivery of new merchandise to vendors from suppliers;
5. the amount of new orders for capital goods unrelated to defense;
6. the amount of new building permits for residential buildings;
7. the S&P 500 stock index;
8. the inflation-adjusted monetary supply (M2);
9. the spread between long and short interests rates;
10. consumer's sentiment.

By looking at the Composite Index of Leading Indicators in the light of business cycles and general economic conditions, investors and businesses can form expectations about what's ahead, and make better-informed decisions. It has medium importance, as its components are already known at the time of its publication.

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