US Jobs Data disappoints the market

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had its largest rally in two months as risk aversion spiked higher after weak US jobs data put the recovery story in doubt. Oil slipped over 4% as less jobs indicates consumer demand should remain weak. June Non Farm Payrolls at -467k (F.-360k) and Unemployment Rate at 9.5% vs. 9.6% forecast. Crude Oil closes down $2.58 to close the day at $66.73. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 49 points or -2.67% and the Dow Jones was down -223 points or -2.63%. Looking ahead, July 4th Holidays.

European Euro

The Euro (EUR) found support at 1.4000 although heavy selling finally pushed the pair through the major pivot level. ECB held at 1.0% but Trichet stressed they could still go lower if confidence falters. EU Unemployment jumped to 9.5% vs. 9.2% previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3926 and a high of 1.4150 before closing at 1.3940. Looking ahead, May Retail Sales forecast at -0.1% vs. 0.2% previously.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the strongest currency as traders dumped there long AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY post US Jobs Data. USD/JPY was dragged down to the 96 Yen level but found support on dips below. Risk sentiment and stocks moves will direct the next move. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.68 and a high of 96.91 before closing the day around 95.90 in the New York session.

Pound Sterling (GBP)

The Sterling (GBP) was pushed under support at 1.6400 to find decent buying ahead of the key 1.6330 support level. EUR/GBP buying and GBP/JPY selling added to the pressure as did weak construction PMI at 44.5 vs. 46.1 forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6321 and a high of 1.6503 before closing the day at 1.6360 in the New York session. Looking ahead, PMI services forecast at 52 vs. 51.7 previously.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke through 0.8000 after the US jobs data and tested support at 0.7930. Heavy AUD/JPY selling was offset slight by AUD/NZD support but the risk averse currency will struggle if stocks continue to be sold. Weak Gold and Oil added to the bearish picture but a break of the 0.7800 – 0.8250 range is need to deliver more substantial selling. May’s Trade Balance shocked the market at -0.56B vs. -0.1Bn forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7900 and a high of 0.8097 before closing the US session at 0.7940.

Gold

Gold (XAU) fell from the $940 levels as USD strength outpaced safe haven demand for gold. Weaker commodities in general are hurting the outlook. Overall trading with a low of USD$926 and high of USD$941 before ending the New York session at USD$932 an ounce.

Technical Analysis: Weak US Jobs Data Disappoints The Market

Euro (EUR)

Euro – 1.3960 : Initial support at 1.3827 (Jun 29 low) followed by 1.3827 (Jun 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4201 (July 1 high) followed by 1.4267 (Jun 5 high)

Yen (JPY)

Yen – 95.75 : Initial support is located at 94.45 (Jun 1 low) followed by 93.86 (May 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.19 (Jun 19 high) followed by 97.89 (Jun 16 high).

Pound Sterling (GBP)

Pound – 1.6350 : Initial support at 1.6189 (Jun 18) followed by 1.6041 (Resistance Nov 6). Initial resistance is now at 1.6745 (Jul 1 Level) followed by 1.6830 (Fibo Level).

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Australian Dollar – 0.7930 : Initial support at 0.7918 (Jun 24 low) followed by the 0.7790 (Jun 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8155 (Jun 30 high) followed by 0.8263 (Jun 3 high).

Gold (XAU)

Gold – 932 : Initial support at 923 (June 30 low) followed by 912 (Fibo level). Initial resistance is now at 948 (Jun 26 high) followed by 965 (June 10 high).

China Calls for G8 USD Agenda

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was on the back foot as global equity markets continued to rally. News that China is looking for Global Reserve Currencies to be on the Agenda at the next G8 meeting added to the downside pressure. Data was mixed with ADP Private Unemployment falling -473K in June vs. -393K forecast. May Pending Home sales at 0.1% vs. 0.0% forecast. June ISM Manufacturing climbed to 44.8 vs. 42.8 previously. Crude Oil closes down $0.58 to close the day at $69.31. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 10 points or 0.58% and the Dow Jones was up 57 points or 0.68%. Looking ahead, June Non Farm Payrolls forecast at -363K vs. -345K previously. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to rise to 9.6% vs. 9.4% previously.

European Euro

The Euro (EUR) rallied off the 1.4000 support reportedly from large bids from Asian Central Banks. The market rally continued with better manufacturing data from the US and China during the day and USD reserve concerns. German Retail Sales at 0.4% vs. -0.1% forecast in May. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4000 and a high of 1.4202 before closing at 1.4040. Looking ahead, ECB Rate Announcement and Speech from President Trichet. Also May Unemployment forecast to rise to 9.3 vs. 9.2%.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) broke above resistance at 96.50 to ally towards 97 as risk appetite grew and crosses continued to rally. EUR/JPY was especially buoyant with Global investors continued to diversify there exposure to the USD. Q2 Tankan showed improvement but less than expected at -48 vs. -43 expected. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 96.15 and a high of 97.01 before closing the day around 96.60 in the New York session.

Pound Sterling (GBP)

The Sterling (GBP) found support under 1.6400 in Early Europe but the bearish sentiment from Tuesday overflowed. USD weakness and GBP/JPY buying help the GBP to rally but EUR/GBP buying kept gains limited. UK Factory PMI jumped to 47 vs. 46.4 previously. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6382 and a high of 1.6548 before closing the day at 1.6480 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) found support in the low 0.80’s but found trading above 0.8100 difficult as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of the Non farm payrolls. Oil weakness dragged but Copper and Gold demand help support. May Retail Sales Jumped 1.0% vs. 0.5% previously. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8021 and a high of 0.8111 before closing the US session at 0.8080. Looking ahead, Trade Balance forecast at -125M vs. -91M previously.

Gold

Gold (XAU) Gold rallied hard on the back of USD weakness and investors swooping on prices under $930. Overall trading with a low of USD$927 and high of USD$947 before ending the New York session at USD$940 an ounce.

Technical Analysis: Global Equity Markets Continued To Rally

Euro (EUR)

Euro – 1.4135 : Initial support at 1.3983 (Jun 29 low) followed by 1.3827 (Jun 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4201 (July 1 high) followed by 1.4267 (Jun 5 high)

Yen (JPY)

Yen – 96.50 : Initial support is located at 94.45 (Jun 1 low) followed by 93.86 (May 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.19 (Jun 19 high) followed by 97.89 (Jun 16 high).

Pound Sterling (GBP)

Pound – 1.6480 : Initial support at 1.6189 (Jun 18) followed by 1.6041 (Resistance Nov 6). Initial resistance is now at 1.6745 (Jul 1 Level) followed by 1.6830 (Fibo Level).

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Australian Dollar – 0.8080 : Initial support at 0.7918 (Jun 24 low) followed by the 0.7790 (Jun 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8155 (Jun 30 high) followed by 0.8263 (Jun 3 high).

Gold (XAU)

Gold – 940 : Initial support at 912 (Fibo level low) followed by 906 (May 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 948 (Jun 26 high) followed by 965 (June 10 high).

UK GDP DROPS FASTEST IN 50 YEARS

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) enjoyed gains as optimism was dampened by a dramatic slump in Consumer Confidence in June. Forecast at 55.4 vs. 54.9 previously, the 49.3 reading led to a sharp sell off in Oil which had hit Year highs in Asia. This in turn led to commodity currencies such as the CAD being sold. Crude Oil closes down $1.60 to close the day at $79.89. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 9 points or -0.49% and the Dow Jones was down -82 points or -0.97%. Looking ahead, ISM Manufacturing June forecast at 44.5 vs. 42.8 previously. Also released, ADP Employment Report forecast at -393K vs. -532K. May Pending Home Sales are forecast flat 0% vs. +6.7% previously.

European Euro

The Euro (EUR) tested 1.4000 but managed to shrug off heavy GBP/USD falls post GDP. EU Inflation fell 0.1% y/y in June. German Unemployment rises to 8.3% as expected. EUR/JPY buying supported on dips. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4000 and a high of 1.4153 before closing at 1.4040. Looking ahead, German Retail Sales forecast at -0.1% in May. June PMI Manufacturing is forecast at 42.4 vs. 40.7 previously.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was volatile but was most sold during the day as investors still buy USD/JPY on dips and the crosses rallied in Asia. Weak US stocks hurt the Crosses but the USD/JPY managed to close above 96 in a technically significant bullish close. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.31 and a high of 96.52 before closing the day around 96.20 in the New York session. UPDATE Q2 TANKAN SURVEY -48 vs. -43 forecast.

Pound Sterling (GBP)

The Sterling (GBP) broke resistance to surge to fresh year highs above 1.6700 in Asia as UK house Prices rose 0.9% vs. -0.5% forecast. In Europe, the downgrade of UK Q1 GDP to -2.4% vs. -1.9% initially caused a massive reversal of the pounds fortunes. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6422 and a high of 1.6745 before closing the day at 1.6465 in the New York session. Looking ahead, PMI Manufacturing is forecast at 46.5 vs. 45.4.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied with the Nikkei in Asia but failed at the 0.8150 resistance before falling as US consumer confidence slumped in June. Weak Stocks and Oil hampered progress but the AUD remained very well supported above 0.8000. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8039 and a high of 0.8156 before closing the US session at 0.8080. UPDATE May Retail Sales at 1.0% vs. 0.5% forecast.

Gold

Gold (XAU) dropped as USD strength combined with Oil weakness to break $930 support. Overall trading with a low of USD$921 and high of USD$946 before ending the New York session at USD$928 an ounce.

Technical Analysis: AUD Rallied With The Nikkei In Asia

Euro (EUR)

Euro – 1.4035 : Initial support at 1.3983 (Jun 29 low) followed by 1.3827 (Jun 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4178 (Jun 11 high) followed by 1.4267 (Jun 5 high)

Yen (JPY)

Yen – 96.25 : Initial support is located at 94.45 (Jun 1 low) followed by 93.86 (May 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 96.57 (Jun 25 high) followed by 97.19 (Jun 19 high).

Pound Sterling (GBP)

Pound – 1.6475 : Initial support at 1.6189 (Jun 18) followed by 1.6041 (Resistance Nov 6). Initial resistance is now at 1.6830 (Fibo Level) followed by 1.7198 (Oct 21 High).

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Australian Dollar – 0.8075 : Initial support at 0.7918 (Jun 24 low) followed by the 0.7790 (Jun 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8263 (Jun 3 high) followed by 0.8378 (Sep 26 high).

Gold (XAU)

Gold – 928 : Initial support at 912 (Fibo level low) followed by 906 (May 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 948 (Jun 26 high) followed by 965 (June 10 high).

Market Rallies with ‘Risk On’

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a bounce in US stocks as investors snapped up those beaten down last week. Commodities and risk currencies rallied hurting the USD. With a major data week ahead, the market will search for confirmation that ‘green shoots’ are sprouting. Crude Oil closes up $2.33 to close the day at $71.49. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 5 points or 0.32% and the Dow Jones was up 90 points or 1.08%. Looking ahead, Chicago PMI forecast at 55 vs. 54.9 previously. Also released June CB Consumer Confidence forecast at 55.4 vs. 54.9 previously.

European Euro

The Euro (EUR) tested 1.4000 in early Asia before rallying for the rest of the day tracking equity markets and Oil. Eurozone Consumer Confidence improved to -25 vs. -29 previously. EUR/JPY surged as the Yen was pressured. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3981 and a high of 1.4114 before closing at 1.4070. Looking ahead, June German Unemployment is forecast at 8.3% vs. 8.2%. June Flash Inflation is forecast at -0.2% vs. 0.0%.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the market aggressively sold the Yen overnight with all crosses rallying and USD/JPY reclaiming 96 Yen level. The double test of 95 last week is discouraging the bears, whilst the crosses are providing solid support. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.14 and a high of 96.30 before closing the day around 96.10 in the New York session. UPDATE May Unemployment forecast at 5.2% vs. 5.0% previously.

Pound Sterling (GBP)

The Sterling (GBP) was extremely bullish as EUR/GBP selling and GBP/JPY buying buoyed the pound towards 1.6000. June GFK Index is at -25 vs. -27 its highest level since April 2008. Helping Cable is the old relationship it has with Oil which also rallied overnight. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6426 and a high of 1.6602 before closing the day at 1.6580 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Q1 GDP is forecast at -2.1% vs. -1.9% initial.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied with the improved mood in the market although is still well off the year highs above 0.8200. Heavy resistance between 0.8120-50 and a general feeling that the AUD is expensive is hampering gains. AUD/JPY out of Tokyo continues to support with many investors searching higher yields. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7982 and a high of 0.8116 before closing the US session at 0.8080.

Gold

Gold (XAU) kept to a tight range above the $930 support with USD weakness and Oil helping support on dips. Overall trading with a low of USD$934 and high of USD$943 before ending the New York session at USD$940 an ounce.

Technical Analysis: GBP Was Found Extremely Bullish

Euro (EUR)

Euro – 1.4105 : Initial support at 1.3827 (Jun 22 low) followed by 1.3749 (Jun 16 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4178 (Jun 11 high) followed by 1.4267 (Jun 5 high)

Yen (JPY)

Yen – 95.65 : Initial support is located at 94.45 (Jun 1 low) followed by 93.86 (May 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 96.57 (Jun 25 high) followed by 97.19 (Jun 19 high).

Pound Sterling (GBP)

Pound – 1.6630 : Initial support at 1.6189 (Jun 18) followed by 1.6041 (Resistance Nov 6). Initial resistance is now at 1.6662 (Jun 3 high) followed by 1.6739 (61.8% retrace).

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Australian Dollar – 0.8090 : Initial support at 0.7918 (Jun 24 low) followed by the 0.7790 (Jun 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8119 (Jun 19 high) followed by 0.8263 (Jun 3 high).

Gold (XAU)

Gold – 942 : Initial support at 912 (Fibo level low) followed by 906 (May 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 948 (Jun 26 high) followed by 965 (June 10 high).

FOMC helps USD Recover

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) continued to trade in a wide range with the market selling USD ahead of the FOMC only to buy them back after a less dovish than expected statement. Adding to USD strength was reports that the SNB was intervening on CHF through USD/CHF in a dramatic move yesterday. Weak stocks in the US let the USD keep most of the gains into the US close. Crude Oil closes down $0.70 to close the day at $68.50. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 27 points or 1.55% and the Dow Jones was down -23 points or -0.28%. Looking ahead, Weekly jobless claims are forecast at 600 vs. 608K previously. Also released, Final GDP Q1 forecast to remain at -5.7% q/q.

European Euro

The Euro (EUR) traded above 1.4100 as the Euro hit highs in Early Europe before falling as the USD was supported by a good Treasury auction and secondly by the FOMC comments excluding deflation talk. Stocks and Oil continue to underpin the Euro going forward. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3888 and a high of 1.4140 before closing at 1.3940. Looking ahead, April Industrial Orders are forecast at 0.0% vs. -0.8% previously.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) popped above 96 after the USD FOMC boost. Crosses were well supported during the day although weak stocks saw them finish roughly flat. Stock market losses are hurting the uptrend seen in the AUD/JPY which risks further pullback as investor optimism wanes. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.06 and a high of 96.08 before closing the day around 95.60 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June Nationwide Core CPI forecast at -1.2% y/y.

Pound Sterling (GBP)

The Sterling (GBP) was well supported by investors but USD strength won in the end pushing the pair from 1.6600 to 1.6400 late in the US session. The lack of expansion in US Treasury Buying from the Fed supported the dollar post FOMC. EUR/GBP slipped back under 0.8500. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6366 and a high of 1.6604 before closing the day at 1.6400 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) had a volatile day trading above 0.8000 in Europe before slumping with the rest of the majors. AUD/JPY dip buying supported with Japanese investors still chasing the highest yielding currency in the market. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7927 and a high of 0.8057 before closing the US session at 0.7965.

Gold

Gold (XAU) surged on USD concerns pre FOMC before easing as expansion of the FED bond buying programming failed to materialize. Overall trading with a low of USD$943 and high of USD$922 before ending the New York session at USD$932 an ounce.

Technical Analysis: USD Supported By FOMC Comments

Euro (EUR)

Euro – 1.3930 : Initial support at 1.3880 (Jun 24 support) followed by 1.3830 (Jun 22 support). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4000 (Key level) followed by 1.4060 (Jun 24 resistance)

Yen (JPY)

Yen – 95.70 : Initial support is located at 95.33 (Jun 5 low) followed by 96.52 (Jun 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 96.50 (Projected Jun 25 resistance high) followed by 98.89 (Jun 5 high).

Pound Sterling (GBP)

Pound – 1.6420 : Initial support at 1.6360 (Jun 24 resistance) followed by 1.6305 (Jun 24 hourly support). Initial resistance is now at 1.6662 (Jun 3 high) followed by 1.6739 (61.8% retrace of Last years fall).

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Australian Dollar – 0.7965 : Initial support at 0.7855 (Jun support) followed by the 0.7790 (Jun 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8055 (Jun 24 resistance high) followed by 0.8263 (Jun 3 high).

Gold (XAU)

Gold – 931 : Initial support at 916 (May 10 low) followed by 900 (Key level). Initial resistance is now at 940 (Jun 24 resistance) followed by 965 (June resistance).

Oil Falls Over 4% as Sellers Return

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) in a major change of sentiment the market the downside resistance of multiple currencies over a 24 period. USD was the one of the main gainers losing only to the Yen at the end of the day. Risk aversion started to pick up during the Europeans session and very week commodities in the US dragged down stocks. Crude Oil closes down $2.62 to close the day at $66.93. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 61 points or 3.35% and the Dow Jones was down 200 points or -2.35%. Looking ahead, Existing Home Sales are forecast at 4.81Mln vs. 4.68Mln.

European Euro

The Euro (EUR) had a very volatile session as EUR/GBP put the pair on the backfoot and then USD strength dragged the pair lower towards support at 1.3840. EUR/JPY was under pressure as the Yen gained. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3827 and a high of 1.3938 before closing at 1.3840. Looking ahead, Current account forecast at -4.7 vs. -6.5B previously.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the strongest currency in market as traders pared back riskier trades. USD/JPY remained well supported on USD strength although it also eased towards 95 Yen. The market will be waiting for the FOMC tomorrow for any changes in US interest rate forecasts. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.29 and a high of 96.30 before closing the day around 96.10 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Trade Balance forecast at 0.15T vs. -0.05T.

Pound Sterling (GBP)

The Sterling (GBP) came under pressure after early strength on the back on Year highs against the Euro (0.8400). Risk aversion and heavy GBP selling hurt sentiment and Cable crumbled to 1.62 supports. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6207 and a high of 1.6510 before closing the day at 1.6400 in the New York session. UPDATE BBA Mortgage Approvals at 31.2K vs. 29.5K forecast.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the worst hit by risk aversion and the change in investor sentiment. Heavy AUD/JPY selling was constant nearly all day with Oil off 4% and gold down $10 an ounce and stocks over 2% off. The support at 0.7800 is under threat as is the current 0.7800 to 8250 range that has held for the past month. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7807 and a high of 0.8029 before closing the US session at 0.7840.

Gold

Gold (XAU) tracked Oil lower although found support in safe haven flows. Overall trading with a low of USD$911 and high of USD$935 before ending the New York session at USD$923 an ounce.

Technical Analysis: Gold Tracked Oil Lower

Euro (EUR)

Euro – 1.3930 : Initial support at 1.3728 (May 21 low) followed by 1.3584 (May 20 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4033 (Jun 15 high) followed by 1.4178 (Jun 11 high)

Yen (JPY)

Yen – 95.50 : Initial support is located at 95.33 (Jun 5 low) followed by 96.52 (Jun 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.89 (May 7 high) followed by 98.89 (Jun 5 high).

Pound Sterling (GBP)

Pound – 1.6310 : Initial support at 1.6041 (Nov 6) followed by 1.5986 (Jun 9). Initial resistance is now at 1.6662 (Jun 3 high) followed by 1.6739 (61.8% retrace).

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Australian Dollar – 0.7915 : Initial support at 0.7828 (Jun 8 low) followed by the 0.7745 (May 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8108 (Jun 15 high) followed by 0.8263 (Jun 3 high).

Gold (XAU)

Gold – 922 : Initial support at 925 (May 20 low) followed by 916 (May 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 965 (Jun 5 high) followed by 983 (June 3 high).

USD comes under Pressure

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was unable to gain on the increase in risk aversion as multiple factors weighed. Oil jumped as US inventories dropped by 3.9M. US Current Account continued to worsen -101B vs. -85B forecast. US CPI jumped up 0.1% in May. Crude Oil closes down $0.56 to close the day at $71.03. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 11 points or 0.66% and the Dow Jones was down 7 points or -0.09%. Looking ahead, Philly Fed Index is forecast at -17 in June.

European Euro

The Euro (EUR) found support and grinded higher helped by Oil and USD weakness. EUR/GBP was well supported and the market continues to consolidate. Fresh Direction will be found on a break of the 1.3750-1.4150 range. EUR/JPY continues to track market sentiment. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3810 and a high of 1.3976 before closing at 1.3950.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) tested the 96 Yen in early Asia before rebounding as stocks bounced off lows in Japan. AUD/JPY selling and GBP/JPY selling into Europe kept direction choppy. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.50 and a high of 96.80 before closing the day around 96.40 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ Policy Minutes

Pound Sterling (GBP)

The Sterling (GBP) was buoyed off lows in Europe by better than expected UK data and optimistic MPC minutes. Unemployment increased by only 39K vs. 61K forecast. MPC minutes at 9-0 mentioned the recent improvement in data. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6207 and a high of 1.6510 before closing the day at 1.6400 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May Retail Sales are forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.9% previously.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was extremely choppy with both directions tested. 0.7860 supported and 0.8000 capped. Intraday volatility remained high as the market continues to debate the next move. The mood in the markets is flipping multiple times a day although the daily range is tightening. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7849 and a high of 0.8000 before closing the US session at 0.7940.

Gold

Gold (XAU) found support at $930 and the Gold bulls will be looking for a basing and third time lucky test of the $1000 level later in the year. Overall trading with a low of USD$928 and high of USD$943 before ending the New York session at USD$940 an ounce.

Technical Analysis: AUD Was Extremely Choppy With Both Directions Tested

Euro (EUR)

Euro – 1.3840 : Initial support at 1.3728 (May 21 low) followed by 1.3584 (May 20 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4033 (Jun 15 high) followed by 1.4178 (Jun 11 high)

Yen (JPY)

Yen – 96.40 : Initial support is located at 95.33 (Jun 5 low) followed by 96.52 (Jun 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.89 (May 7 high) followed by 98.89 (Jun 5 high).

Pound Sterling (GBP)

Pound – 1.6405 : Initial support at 1.6041 (Nov 6) followed by 1.5986 (Jun 9). Initial resistance is now at 1.6662 (Jun 3 high) followed by 1.6739 (61.8% retrace).

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Australian Dollar – 0.7940 : Initial support at 0.7828 (Jun 8 low) followed by the 0.7745 (May 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8108 (Jun 15 high) followed by 0.8263 (Jun 3 high).

Gold (XAU)

Gold – 935 : Initial support at 925 (May 20 low) followed by 916 (May 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 965 (Jun 5 high) followed by 983 (June 3 high).

BRIC meeting Hurts Dollar

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was very strong in Asia as the Nikkei slumped from the opening following the negative lead from America. In Europe, talk that Russia would be discussing the USD at the BRIC meeting sent the Euro bouncing and it was not until weakness in US stocks that the USD could recover. US Housing data was strong with May Housing starts at 0.532M vs. 0.49M forecast. Oil traded above $72 a barrel briefly before easing into the close. Crude Oil closes down $0.15 to close the day at 70.47. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 20 points or -1.11% and the Dow Jones was down 107 points or -1.25%. Looking ahead, May CPI is forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.0% previously. Q1 Current Account forecast at -85Bn vs. -132Bn previously.

European Euro

The Euro (EUR) Bounced above 1.3800 on BRIC Dollar concerns before extending gains on the back of better than expected German Zew Survey. June Zew Current conditions Survey jumped to -89.7 vs. -92.8 previously. Weak US stocks and EUR/JPY selling pull the pair lower later in the day. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3755 and a high of 1.3934 before closing at 1.3840. Looking ahead, April trade Balance forecast at -1.3Bn vs. 0.4Bn previously.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was bought aggressively in Asia with USD/JPY breaking through 97 Yen and slipping to 96 before recovering with the crosses. Weak stocks and improving economic conditions in Japan the main catalyst. The BOJ upgraded its view of the Japanese economy after its BOJ meeting yesterday. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 96.06 and a high of 97.74 before closing the day around 96.45 in the New York session.

Pound Sterling (GBP)

The Sterling (GBP) found support at 1.6200 after heavy GBP/JPY out of Asia put the Pound of the back foot. CPI in May at 0.6% was much more than expected and helped the GBP to climb back above 1.6400 to test 1.6500 briefly in the European session. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6207 and a high of 1.6510 before closing the day at 1.6400 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallies aggressively in Europe from 0.7900 to 0.8050 tracking the bounce in the Euro and Oil. Tokyo traders were taking large profits from the recent AUD/JPY rally to 80 Yen. RBA minutes showed that future rate cuts are possible if the market turns down again. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7858 and a high of 0.8071 before closing the US session at 0.7940.

Gold

Gold (XAU) bounced a little with the market trying to find support around the $930 area. Overall trading with a low of USD$928 and high of USD$940 before ending the New York session at USD$934 an ounce.

Technical Analysis: EURO Bounced On BRIC Dollar Concerns

Euro (EUR)

Euro – 1.3840 : Initial support at 1.3728 (May 21 low) followed by 1.3584 (May 20 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4033 (Jun 15 high) followed by 1.4178 (Jun 11 high)

Yen (JPY)

Yen – 96.40 : Initial support is located at 95.33 (Jun 5 low) followed by 96.52 (Jun 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.89 (May 7 high) followed by 98.89 (Jun 5 high).

Pound Sterling (GBP)

Pound – 1.6405 : Initial support at 1.6041 (Nov 6) followed by 1.5986 (Jun 9). Initial resistance is now at 1.6662 (Jun 3 high) followed by 1.6739 (61.8% retrace).

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Australian Dollar – 0.7940 : Initial support at 0.7828 (Jun 8 low) followed by the 0.7745 (May 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8108 (Jun 15 high) followed by 0.8263 (Jun 3 high).

Gold (XAU)

Gold – 935 : Initial support at 925 (May 20 low) followed by 916 (May 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 965 (Jun 5 high) followed by 983 (June 3 high).

Last week’s Currency Trading Review

The Dollar managed to stall the recent losses against the Euro but lost more ground against riskier currencies as stock markets tested highs around the world. The break above 10000 on the Nikkei helped most Yen crosses to test fresh year highs. US retail sales were at expectations of 0.5% in May. Also June Consumer Sentiment increased to 69 vs. 68.7 previously. Oil broke above $70 a barrel for the first time this year. The Euro couldn’t muster fresh gains this week as the USD received broad support from its status as reserve currency around the world. Multiple Finance minister have offered there support both for the USD and US bonds in the past week. Industrial Production (April) dropped 1.9% vs. -1.4% previously. The EUR/USD gained 0.33% closing at 1.4016, after opening the week at 1.3970.

The Japanese Yen couldn’t break past 99 Yen but did mange new highs on the AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY as the carry trade roared back on commodity gains. Final Q1 GDP was upgraded to -3.8%. The GBP rebounded well after Political concerns faded. EUR/GBP traded at fresh year lows. Manufacturing Production gained 0.2% vs. -0.1% forecast.GBP/USD gained 2.82% closing at 1.6442 after opening at 1.5978. The AUD surged ahead as Unemployment numbers of -1.7K beat forecasts of -30k and commodities rallied. Consumer Confidence surged the most in 22 years up 12.7%. The AUD/USD closed up 2.36% at 0.8122 after opening at 0.7930.

For the week starting 16/06/09.

This Forex Trading Week Preview

In the States; on Monday, TIC Flows (April) previously at 23.2BN. On Tuesday, PPI (May) forecast at 0.6% m/m. Also released, May Housing starts are forecast at 485K whilst building permits (May) is forecast at 500K. May Industrial Production is forecast at -0.9% vs. -0.5% previously. On Wednesday CPI (May) are forecast at -0.9% vs. -0.7%. On Thursday, weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 610K vs. 601K previously. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In the Eurozone; On Tuesday, German Zew Survey forecast at 35 vs. 31 previously. On Wednesday, Trade Balance is forecast at -1.5Bn in April. On Friday, German PPI (May) is forecast flat vs. -1.4% previously m/m. In the UK; On Tuesday, CPI (May) is forecast at 2.0% y/y vs. 2.3% previously. On Wednesday, BOE minutes released along with ILO Unemployment Rate (April) forecast at 7.35 vs. 7.1% previously. On Thursday, Retail Sales (May) forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.95 previously. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In Japan; On Tuesday, BOJ meet and are forecast to hold at 0.1%.On Friday, BOJ minutes form the meeting released. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In Australia; RBA minutes on Tuesday the highlight. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

Technical Analysis: USD Lost Ground Against Riskier Currencies

Euro (EUR)

Euro – 1.3970 : Initial support at 1.3793 (May 28 low) followed by 1.3728 (May 21 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4178 (Jun 11 high) followed by 1.4267 (Jun 5 high)

Yen (JPY)

Yen – 98.15 : Initial support is located at 97.09 (Jun 5 low) followed by 96.52 (Jun 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 98.89 (May 7 high) followed by 99.74 (April 13 high).

Pound Sterling (GBP)

Pound – 1.6380 : Initial support at 1.6242 (Jun 10 low) followed by 1.6041 (Nov 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6662 (Jun 3 high) followed by 1.6739 (61.8% retrace).

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Australian Dollar – 0.8075 : Initial support at 0.7968 (Jun 8 low) followed by the 0.7828 (Jun 10 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8263 (Jun 3 high) followed by 0.8378 (Sept 26 high).

Gold (XAU)

Gold – 937 : Initial support at 936 (May 21 low) followed by 925 (May 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 965 (Jun 5 high) followed by 983 (June 3 high).

EURO under Pressure

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) enjoyed gains all day as the Euro led the majors lower. Oil came off 2% along with Gold and Copper. Stocks were also hit hard by profit taking and helped stoke safe haven buying. TIC long term purchases fell to $11Bn in April. Crude Oil closed down $1.43 to finish the day at $70.61. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 42 points or -2.28% and the Dow Jones was down 187 points or -2.13%. Looking ahead, May Housing Starts are forecast at 0.49M vs. 0.45M previously.

European Euro

The Euro (EUR) continued with Friday’s theme of a slow trend lower. The Pair fell from 1.4000 to test support at 1.3790 before bouncing off 1.3750. Numerous negative Euro stories flooded the market yesterday which combined with stock weakness for a substantial move. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3936 and a high of 1.4128 before closing at 1.4010. Looking ahead, German Zew Survey(Economic Sentiment) for June forecast to rise to 35 from 31 previously.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY initially found support from USD strength until mounting stock market losses forced the pair back below 98 Yen. Crosses were under severe pressure with AUD/JPY falling from 80 to 77.5 Yen. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 97.57 and a high of 98.60 before closing the day around 98.85 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ minutes released Tuesday.

Pound Sterling (GBP)

The Sterling (GBP) held up better than most but succumbed to USD strength. EUR/GBP broke through 0.8500 and supported during the day. A CBI report expects the UK economy to not rebound until 2010 and that expansion of the Quantitative easing program will be required. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6240 and a high of 1.6436 before closing the day at 1.6310 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May CPI is forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.2% previously.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was hit the hardest overnight as the toxic mix of risk aversion and weak commodities forced the Aussie below 0.8000. AUD/JPY in Asia started the move lower with the pair not finding support until 0.7900. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7903 and a high of 0.8095 before closing the US session at 0.7950. Looking ahead, RBA minutes from the June meeting released.

Gold

Gold (XAU) slumped as USD strength hurt gold’s hedging appeal. Overall trading with a low of USD$925 and high of USD$939 before ending the New York session at USD$928 an ounce.

Technical Analysis: [Insert Title here]

Euro (EUR)

Euro – 1.3795 : Initial support at 1.3793 (May 28 low) followed by 1.3728 (May 21 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4178 (Jun 11 high) followed by 1.4267 (Jun 5 high)

Yen (JPY)

Yen – 97.85 : Initial support is located at 97.09 (Jun 5 low) followed by 96.52 (Jun 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 98.89 (May 7 high) followed by 99.74 (April 13 high).

Pound Sterling (GBP)

Pound – 1.6310 : Initial support at 1.6242 (Jun 10 low) followed by 1.6041 (Nov 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6662 (Jun 3 high) followed by 1.6739 (61.8% retrace).

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Australian Dollar – 0.7950 : Initial support at 0.7828 (Jun 8 low) followed by the 0.716 (May 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8263 (Jun 3 high) followed by 0.8378 (Sept 26 high).

Gold (XAU)

Gold – 928 : Initial support at 925 (May 20 low) followed by 916 (May 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 965 (Jun 5 high) followed by 983 (June 3 high).